Posts Tagged Hurricane Katrina

Saving Lives With Ocean Models

The orphans were tied together for their safety. Their teacher had attached all the children with lengths of rope, tied securely around their waists, as the storm approached Galveston and the waters began to rise. And that is how the rescuers uncovered their lifeless bodies, by following the rope from one drowned child to another.

Erik Larson relates the tragedy of the Galveston orphans in his 2000 book Isaac’s Storm. A total of ~9,000 souls perished in that 1900 disaster. In 2005 a similar tragedy befell New Orleans, as Hurricane Katrina swept into the Louisiana delta and drove Lake Pontchartrain over the levees into downtown New Orleans. 1,833 people lost their lives, and at $108 billion Hurricane Katrina represented the largest monetary loss in U.S. history due to natural causes.

These human tragedies don’t have to be repeated.

I’m an ocean modeler at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado. This is my personal blog at funmurphys.com with my own views. I use computer simulation to study hurricane-driven storm surge. I can send a Category 5 hurricane into New York, or Miami, or even Buffalo, New York. I can watch an advancing wall of water obliterate downtown Tokyo from the comfort of my office, all without anyone else getting wet. To do this, I construct a digital model of the coast and I blast it with 150-km/hr winds. A supercomputer calculates the hourly rise in sea level as the storm waters inundate populated areas. I can verify my calculations with past events, and evaluate the risk posed by future hurricanes.

Figure 11. Directional analysis at New York Harbor (experiment NY7).

Figure 11 of Drews C, Galarneau TJ Jr (2015) Directional Analysis of the Storm Surge from Hurricane Sandy 2012, with Applications to Charleston, New Orleans, and the Philippines. PLoS ONE 10(3): e0122113. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0122113

Grid cells in the ocean model are wet or dry. Grid cells containing water are colored blue for the sea; grid cells on land are colored green for vegetation. When the ocean rises and floods formerly dry cells (storm surge), I color them red. I use yellow when a normally wet cell becomes dry (wind setdown).

Just four colors: blue, green, red, and yellow. The ocean model runs and the grid cells change color. That’s all. It’s just a numerical model. But I also realize: People live in those grid cells. Every cell is home to businesswomen, teenagers, hourly laborers, little babies, and retired couples. The grids on my computer screen are filled with living, breathing, working, laughing people. Every grid cell matters. When I see a set of green cells along the coast turn red, I know the human cost. I have joined flood cleanup efforts and seen the destruction. I think about how to prevent the next disaster, how to warn these communities, and how to get them out of harm’s way.

If you live in a coastal area, you should know that supercomputers are even now running and calculating to protect your life and property. Researchers are developing coastal models to evaluate your risk and your evacuation plans. At NCAR, NOAA, and the National Hurricane Center, projects are underway to forecast hurricane-driven storm surge. Today you can view your city’s risk at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/experimental/inundation/. Hopefully someday you will be able to click on a Google Earth plot of your own house and show the hourly surge forecast as the storm approaches.

Other hurricanes will surely come. Typhoons will pound the coasts of the Philippines, Taiwan, and Japan. We are determined that there will never be another Galveston 1900, that the human tragedy of New Orleans 2005 will never happen again. With accurate and timely forecasts, we are working to ensure that next time people won’t be in the way when the big waves come ashore.

Carl Drews, author of Between Migdol and the Sea: Crossing the Red Sea with Faith and Science.

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Katrina Ramblings 2

Complaints about FEMA are nothing new. I remember in the 1993 floods people were bitching about how slow, ackward, and bureaucratic the organization was. I don’t recall anyone claiming that the percieved poor response showed that President Clinton didn’t like poor white people, which was the group mostly affected by the flooding around here. There were complaints following every major disaster I can think of, and the larger the disaster, the more the complaints. And why not, FEMA the organization consists of bureaucrats at the top and then an ad hoc conglomeration of disparate parts put together for a particular mission. Of course it’s going to take time to get it’s act together, and the more resources it has to meld, the longer it takes. And we have come to believe that somehow because it ultimately has the full resources of the country at its disposal, it can do anything. Yes, but as Scotty would say if he were alive today, FEMA can’t change the laws of physics. 

And yes, they are a part of the government, which means that they have to do all the stupid things we, the people, make government do. Like make sure everybody’s sexual harrassment training is up to date. Don’t you have to have some sort of sexual harrassment training at your place of employment? Hey, if we can dispense with it in an emergency, why do we need it all? Are you saying sexual harrassment is OK?

Micky Kaus is going on about the problems of Federalism, and sums up with: “When things screw up, these days, we hold the president and the federal government responsible. It follows that the president and the federal government should have the power to stop things from screwing up. … ” Hey Mickey, maybe we shouldn’t hold the president and federal government responsible (I know I don’t – so there’s one vote no). Should we forget about the separation of powers (which isn’t just between executive, legislative, and judicial branches of government BTW) in extreme situations? Would it be better in an emergency if we just had one man on a white horse who could simply order whatever needed to be done? How many tyrants have seized power under just such a pretext? Who decides how when it is just such an emergency? Such a move ignores the centuries of hardwon experience on why such a separation is ultimately a better way. Nor is it clear that a single edict issuer is better. If it’s better in an emergency, why isn’t it better all the time? You have to understand there are tradeoffs, and one system may be better one thing than another, but you have to pick what’s best overall. And that doesn’t even address the fact that every management study shows you’re better off pushing authority down, not concentrating it upward.

It reminds me of my aerodynamic days, and people would ask me to optimize the performance. I’d ask them back, “When you say performance, are you talking range or maneuverability?” Invariably I’d get the reply, “Both”. Then I’d have to get midieval on their heinies, because at that point it was obvious they didn’t have a clue about optimization. 

I wonder if there would be so many complaints about FEMA if (1) Bush Derangement Syndrome didn’t infect so many media types (CNN needs to find a cure stat) and (2) the dunderheads in Louisiana concentrated two enourmous crowds of helpless people – one at the Superdome and one at the convention center. And then they wouldn’t let relief in, nor would they let the people out – and then they had to scrounge transportation since they let hurricane destroy all the local buses. How much more poignant could they have made the story? 

Now is all this a defense of FEMA? No, not really. I suppose it’s a defense of FEMA for what it is, not what it should be. First, because after the two big screwups at the local level – no evacuation except self evacuation, and turning away the Red Cross and the Salvation Army from entering New Orleans, all you’re left with on FEMA is that it does what a Federal Agency does best – spend a hell of a lot of money to slowly do something while making damn sure it compleis with every law and every proceedure that has been set upon it in advance (otherwise known as “red tape”). And they aren’t first responders, they were an organization that plugs in resources to local leadership. Since the local leadership doesn’t have a clue as to what to do, FEMA couldn’t provide adequate resources. And that’s why you saw the announcement over the weekend that FEMA was now an equal partner, and the LANG would be closely coordinating with Gen Honore. So what happens when local leadership sucks (like this instance?) Well, the people who picked that leadership suffers. Isn’t that part of the accountablity politicians have to voters, and ultimately voters have to each other?

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Come What May

Just in case the Katrina coverage has you all flipped out, for a mere half a million dollars you can buy a place where you can be safe and secure come what may – even if that includes nuclear bombs and anthrax spores. Not recommended for people who like people.

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Katrina Ramblings

I still haven’t seen an explanation as good as Carl’s in his comment to an earlier post of mine (Dutch Uncle) as to why the levees failed where and when they did. Putting it into my own words, since a hurricane’s winds blow counter-clockwise, they cause a counter-clockwise movement of water — the storm surge. This surge moved from the Gulf of Mexico into Lake Pontchartrain (which is connected to the ocean both by open water and low lying marsh) as part of the counter clockwise movement – and was concentrated in Lake Pontchartrain (thus raising its level) because inlets concentrate storm surges. As Katrina passed, the winds shifted and blew out of the north, thus piling the water in the Lake up against the levees on the south side of the lake — the north side of New Orleans, and ultimately overtopped some which led to their failure. I doubt any level can withstand being overtopped for very long because of the enormous erosion power generated by the flowing water, and the higher the levee, the greater the erosion. Geography as destiny. Because hurricanes rotate counter-clockwise, and New Orleans is south of large “lake” (inlet really) that opens to the ocean to the east, was the site inherently prone to being swamped by a storm surge? What if the geography was mirror imaged east-west, with the ocean and the inlet to Lake Ponchartrain to the west, would that site see much lower storm surges?

I suppose the only solace to take in the vast destruction is that this represents a worst case combination of catastrophes – hurricane and flooding (which contra Chertoff in the case of New Orleans are not just linked but expected in a storm the magnitude of Katrina). Typically when you have flooding, that’s the only damage, or if you have a hurricane, thats all the damage, and the same goes for earthquakes, tornados, mudslides, etc. But New Orleans put a gun to it’s head and then let any hurricane of sufficient strength pull the trigger. Normally evacuations don’t occur with the surrounding area out of commission. Still, I’m considering keeping a one week supply of necessities on hand in case of a local emergency. 

There is no comparison between Hurricane Katrina (or more properly, the devastation caused by Katrina) and 9-11 (or more properly, the devastation caused by al-Qaida on 9-11). Well, you can compare the death tolls, and you can compare the response both here in America and around the world, but the devastation of Katrina far outstrips 9-11. Katrina devastated a large regions that covers multiple states and includes several medium sized cities; 9-11 devastated several square blocks in a giant city and damaged a huge office building. For Katrina lives hung in the balance for days, possibly even a couple of weeks; 9-11 was all over by nightfall of the first day. Katrina was a natural disaster or heroic proportions; 9-11 was a mass murder carried out on a scale rarely seen outside government. So trying to compare the governmental response to the two simply doesn’t make sense because responding to 9-11 was piece of cake compared to Katrina.

My church will be helping out with some 300 families from New Orleans that will be housed in the old prison in Gumbo Flats (now known as Chesterfield Valley). Why yes, the prison was under water during the ’93 flood. It’s expected that most of the people will try to restart their lives here in St. Louis and so will move out when able. They should be arriving today.

I’m weary of all the people making claims about what should have been done, how much faster it could have been done, etc. Some claims are simply disgusting and absurd, like Bush wasn’t interested in helping poor black people. Many claims are simply grasping at straws, and bear the earmarks of blind partisan carping. Frankly, what I’ve read so far makes the best case that the worst failures — and of a very long standing nature — were at the local level and the most dithering at the state level. But FEMA may have to be renamed Federal Emergency Mismanagement Agency after their performance, which has only been made worse by the poor TV performance of it’s head, coupled with the poor TV performance of the head of Homeland Security, both of whom I wouldn’t trust to get me out of a tree with a ladder in their hands after watching them. And quite frankly I’m a little tired of any organization in New Orleans complaining about how outsiders are to blame for not rescuing them from there folly fast enough. 

The New Orleans police department has taken a lot of heat over its performance in Katrina. I’d like to ask for a little understanding, since the only difference between the people who were sitting on their butts saying I need to be taken care of and the police on duty who were expected to take care of them is that the police were members of the police force. Other than that, they were the same. They’d been through the same devastation, lost everything, had access to the same information and supplies, yet they were expected to keep on going. Many did and deserve our praise. Many didn’t, but I don’t see that they deserve our scorn. Could they have performed better – absolutely, and if they had been better prepared (just like everybody else), they probably would have.

In summation, can we all work together on the task at hand, work on recovering from the damage, work on insuring every town and state is ready for the next natural or manmade disaster, and remove partisan politics from the inquiry into what went wrong and what went right. Because if all we want to do is blame particular individuals because of their political affiliation, we are not going to be ready for the next challenge, and for all those who so want to fix the blame the blame on a political basis, the blame will belong to you.

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Don’t Forget

I understand and whole heartedly agree that we need to give to relief agencies to help the victims of Katrina. But let me point out that you should continue to give to charities that you have supported in the past, whether local, national, and/or foriegn because those needs have not gone away just because there was a natural disaster on the gulf coast. The best giving plan is flexible to handle crises as they arise but not be driven by them. 

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Dutch Uncle

OK, I can’t resist. I just want to settle one thing. New Orleans was a disaster waiting to happen. It was built to withstand a category 3 hurricane. It got hit by a category 4. It drowned. No matter who was President, no matter what treaties were signed, no matter what money was spent on the levee system, it was not designed to withstand a category 4 hurricane like Katrina. And before we start blaming the good people of New Orleans for living like that, I doubt there’s a major city in the United States built to withstand a possible natural disaster, from earthquake to volcano to hurricane to tornado to forest fire to you get the idea.

Let me balance that with a couple of worthwhile Katrina posts:

It’s a quagmire and Submarines.

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The Long Shadow

Last night my wife asked me to change the channel on the Katrina coverage since it was too depressing. Death, destruction, the breakdown in order, all with little relief in sight. I suppose if I were a better writer, I could write something worth reading, but I’m not. So yes, by all means contribute to relief agencies like The Salvation Army which has done a great job at disaster relief for years. 

Better that than bicker and backstab and rant and rave. There’s a time and a place for all that, but not now. We need to work the priorities, and fault assessing doesn’t rate highly at a time like this. I can respect the bitchiness of people actually trapped in the nightmare, not those on the outside who take any event as confirmation of their ongoing rightness.

Yes, it’s frustrating to see how much bad it is, and wonder what’s taking so long. But let’s review. Something like million people have fled their homes. Something like 100,000 are left in New Orleans and need to get out. There’s no power, areas are flooded, roads and bridges are out, and the people left have no transportation of their own. The states workers providing relief have suffered varying amounts of damage of their own. So what’s the hold up? The latest holdup is the breakdown in order which has led to shots being fired at rescuers. I never thought it would come to his, but why not shoot looters, or at least people who shoot at law enforcement, refugee caravans, search and rescue operations, or menace hospitals.

Once we’re past the crisis of saving people, we can recriminate to the cows come home, but we’ll be faced with another issue – what are we going to do with 1 million refugees? What is going to happen to their lives? How many will return if it takes 4 months (or more) for the city to be drained, cleaned, and rebuilt? Who can sit out that long and not face financial ruin? And is that the best use of finite resources?

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USS Alabama

I read on One Hand Clapping that the USS Alabama in Mobile Bay was damaged. Amid all the death and destruction, I suppose that’s really no big deal. But I remember the happy time and amazement when I visited it as a kid, and I remember the happy time and amazement when I visited it again with my kids. Here is a picture of my wife and son during our visit:

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A Slow Nightmare Scenario

A disaster of heroic proportions is unfolding before our very eyes. The damage caused by Katrina is huge, the deaths untold (and likely to be heartbreakingly high, as in thousands) and yet the misery and suffering are not over, and will continue a while longer. A major US city and the region near it has been destroyed and rendered uninhabitable. The “chaos and looting” are only a small part of the story, and will end as the entire area is completely evacuated of residents

It will take a long time and a lot of money to restore the area. But the immediate task of just rescuing as many people as possible and getting the survivors out and in shelters is daunting enough. What will they do, how will they live while the rebuilding goes on? How many people will return, and what kind of changes in building codes and land use will we see as a result? Should New Orleans even be rebuilt, given it’s location, geography, and weather? 

Soon enough, the dramatic part of the disaster will be over, the rest of the country will go back to our own concerns, and the people in the area will be left with picking up the pieces — although with plenty of outside help.

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Katrina and Her Waves

On the one hand, New Orleans is the ultimate, no worries, be happy kind of place (in the US anyway). It’s party all the time down there. On the other hand, everytime a hurricane heads for the gulf coast, the worrying starts and the warnings that the end of New Orleans is, if not exactly at hand, at least within sight. Personally, I couldn’t take the strain. On the third hand, maybe all that worry fuels the partying later. 

I’m glad that the worst fears apparently haven’t been realized, but that doesn’t mean that it won’t cause a lot of damage in addition to deaths and injuries.  The relief effort is already underway, although the storm has to pass before aid can actually arrive. I’m sure the good people of New Orleans perfer Katrina the performer to Katrina the Hurricane, especially her waves.

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