Funmurphys: the Blog

The man of the hour has an air of great power

I wrote this last May in draft form and have finally gotten around to finishing it. How quickly the conventional wisdom changes, now everyone knows we are in a recession. Of course you should "raise as much money as you can, enough to last you for a few years until the recession is over" is also part of the conventional wisdom. As my Uncle John would have observed: it's generally accepted, so generally accepted it may not be true at all."

May 9, 2007: Report from Silicon Valley

So we are starting to pump a little hot air back into the bubble every week now. The streets of Silicon Valley witness young entrepreneurs looking for department store Santas venture capitalists to listen to their list of needs and make their dreams come true. It's "not as nuts as 99" but not as sane, or dour, as 2003. Roger Macnamee blogged for the better part of 2004 on "The New Normal" with this as his inaugural post:

Wake up and smell the coffee. This is not your father's economy. And it's not the boom that inflated our expectations and then exploded. But it's also not the doom and gloom we've been mired in for nearly three years now! So, wake up. Pull yourself together. Get on with it. With what you ask? With the rest of your life. It's a bright, fresh world full of opportunities. I know that runs counter to many of the opinions all around us, but it's true, and I can show you why. It's true for the investor, the entrepreneur, the CEO, the unemployed, and the human being seeking balance. This blog will be dedicated to insights and discussion about life, business, and investment in what I call The New Normal.
Please join in!

Now I regularly have conversations that remind me of 1997-2000. I am routinely admonished that "the old rules no longer apply" and advised that successful firms spend much of their treasure on PR social media and viral marketing (regular marketing is a waste of money since viral marketing is free). YouTube's 1.6 billion dollar exit is the exemplar burned in 10 mile high neon letters into the back of everyone's retinas.

This is not a lament nor a longing for the early 90's (or early 80's), now is the best time to be alive and an entrepreneur. It's a wish that more firms would aim for creating value for their customers.

National Engineers Week

It's National Engineers Week! Break out the party hats!

Seriously, there are few professions where you can have the same mix of challange, fun, renumeration, and impact on the world as you can with engineering. And women, you should consider a career in engineering.

Alcohol Powered Fuel Cells

What can run longer than the energizer bunny? Fuel cells powered by vodka and enzymes, if you can keep the enzymes around long enough. A St. Louis company is working that very problem, and hopes to one day make fuel cells that run for a month before you fill them back up:

Akermin, however, has developed a polymer membrane that is used to contain the enzymes and prevent them from breaking down.

The result is a lab-scale fuel cell that has continuously generated power for more than two years and is still running, said Nick Akers, Akermin's president and co-founder.

It requires the alcohol supply to be continuously renewed.

The company has demonstrated other breakthroughs, he said:

•The enzymes are able to completely break down the alcohol, increasing efficiency and providing a longer run time from a given volume of fuel than other types of fuel cells. A pen-cap full of alcohol lasts about 30 days, said co-founder Shelley Minteer, a chemistry professor at St. Louis University, in a radio interview last year.

•It has engineered a commercial prototype that stacks several tiny fuel cells into a device like a battery pack that is rugged and about the size of a cell phone.

So far, the prototype is just approaching the amount of power generation sufficient to fuel a cell phone. Creating a device that could run a laptop computer is years away, Akers said.

The eventual goal is creating a small, powerful array of fuel cells that last a long time and can be instantly "recharged" by replacing a small, portable and non-toxic alcohol cartridge. Corn-based ethanol is a likely source of fuel because there is a ready supply, but the cells have been shown to run on vodka, gin and even flat beer.

So maybe the push into ethanol as a renewable energy source will pay off after all.

OK, I do think it's really cool that they are doing this work right here in my hometown.

Can't Get Enough iPhone

iPhone is so monumental I can't just leave it with one post.

First, I've made some nice paper gains on my Apple stock the last two days. Yes, this is gloating. See item 3.

Why did they have to exclusively partner with Cingular? Everybody I know who's ever had Cingular has hated them. Not disliked, not been unhappy, HATED them. Couldn't get off the plan fast enough.

How would you like to be Michael Dell? He gave the daily keynote speech at CES yesterday at the same time Steve Jobs was giving his MacWorld keynote. Seen any coverage of that? Yeah, me neither. Almost ten years ago, when asked about Apple, he famously said "I'd shut it down and give the money back to the shareholders." Yikes! That has to rank as some of the worst investment advice ever. Still, Mr. Dell is reportedly a lot easier to work for than Mr. Jobs. Oddly enough, so was Atilla the Hun.

Apple Computer is dead. The pundits who predicted it's demise for so long are not rejoicing however, because Apple Inc. is alive and well. A rose by any other name would be just as sweet, but who am I to argue with Steve Jobs? Or Carl Howe of Blackfriars marketing who claims that Apple just changed consumer electronics nine ways. Maybe next year CES will change their dates so Mr. Jobs can speak there.

Brian Tiemann noticed that Apple dropped more than computer from the company name; Apple may have droped the Mac from Mac OS X now that it is the iPhone operating system as well and wonders if it should be pronounced "Oh Ess Ecks"? After Jobs made such a big deal about putting a phone, an iPod and an internet device into one seamless device, I predict they will rename Mac OS X as NXS and pronounce it "in excess", that way they can combine a great operating system with a great rock band, INXS. It's What You Need.

John Gruber says the iPhone screen is amazing: "166 DPI is an amazing resolution — tiny, tiny text is amazingly legible." I'm guessing John isn't over forty, because for people of a certain age tiny tiny text is not just illegible, its unnoticable. But after springing $600 dollars for the phone, I suppose I can spend $10 on a pair of reading glasses to go with it.

The iPhones Are Here, The iPhones Are Here!

A lot of people make bold claims but few can back them up, but when Steve Jobs talks, people listen:

"Well, today, we're introducing three revolutionary products of this class," said Jobs. "The first one is a widescreen iPod with touch controls. The second is a revolutionary mobile phone. The third is a breakthrough Internet communications device."

"These are not three separate devices," said Jobs. "This is one device. And we are calling it iPhone. Today Apple is going to reinvent the phone."

No not everything turns out like the iPod (just don't mention "Brain in a Beaker" or Newton to Steve), but Steve and Apple have been on a roll lately. I haven't even seen the thing, and I want one. Of course, I've already drunk the Kool Aid, so what else would you expect?

Month of Apple Bugs

I'm a big Mac fan, and so in the interest of equal time, fair and balanced, journalistic ethics, etc. etc. etc. here is a link to the The Month Of Apple Bugs blog. Here's hoping they all get squashed.

UPDATE: Apparently there was a bug with the URL which has now been squashed.

Up, Up, and Away

Somedays I'm more proud of my Swiss ancestory than others -- and today is such a day. Yves Rossy flies like a bird, or at least as close to a bird as you can with composite wings and kerosene powered engines. It's not man powered, but it is wearable. He straps on the 10 foot wings, jumps out of a plane, and flies using his body as the control system. Yikes! Of course he has a web site: Jet-Man.com.

So I salute you, Yves Rossy, truly a Real Man of Genius.

Guilty Pleasure

I like Macs. I've bought five over the years, starting with that little darling, the Mac SE. My latest is the latest 20" iMac. I even own Apple stock. So I like the current round of ads with the slightly annoying Mac and the more than slightly nerdy PC -- see them all here.

Fastest Wireless Network

The Aussies at CSIRO have developed the fastest wireless link so far:

The CSIRO ICT Centre today announced that it has achieved over six gigabits per second over a point to point wireless connection with the highest efficiency (2.4bits/s/Hz) ever achieved for such a system.

Multi-gigabit links operate at speeds that leave current wireless networks far behind. For example the entire works of Shakespeare could be transmitted over this six gigabit link in under seven thousandths of a second or a full DVD movie in just over three quarters of a second.

I predict teenage girls will be able to make use of that bandwidth and still hunger for more. The older I get, the more amazed I am at how women are driven to communicate (I say that in amazement, not scorn). And yes, one day Glenn Reynolds will be dethroned as king blogger, and it will be by a queen (insert your own Andrew Sullivan joke here).

Data Mining Against Fraud

Researchers at Carnegie Mellon have devised algorithms relying on data miniing to catch people who commit fraud on internet auction sites:

Online auction sites are immensely popular. The largest, eBay, reported third quarter revenues of $1.449 billion, up 31 percent from the previous year, and registered 212 million users, up 26 percent. But the popularity of online auction sites also makes them a target for crooks. Internet auction fraud, such as failure to deliver goods after a sale, accounted for almost two-thirds of the 97,000 complaints referred to law enforcement agencies last year by the federal Internet Crime Complaint Center.

Perpetrators of these frauds have distinctive online behaviors that cause them to be readily purged from an online auction site, said Computer Science Professor Christos Faloutsos. The software developed by his research team — Network Detection via Propagation of Beliefs, or NetProbe — could prevent future frauds by identifying their accomplices, who can lurk on a site indefinitely and enable new generations of fraudsters.

In a test analysis of about one million transactions between almost 66,000 eBay users, NetProbe correctly detected 10 previously identified perpetrators, as well as more than a dozen probable fraudsters and several dozen apparent accomplices.

Cheap Arsenic Removal

Here's the good news: a cheap and effective way to remove arsenic from drinking water.

The discovery of unexpected magnetic interactions between ultrasmall specks of rust is leading scientists at Rice University's Center for Biological and Environmental Nanotechnology (CBEN) to develop a revolutionary, low-cost technology for cleaning arsenic from drinking water. The technology holds promise for millions of people in India, Bangladesh and other developing countries where thousands of cases of arsenic poisoning each year are linked to poisoned wells.

Here's the snark: First he lost the election (sort of), then he fired Rumsfeld, now his plans to poison Americans has been thwarted. What more is going to go wrong for Bush?

Just Add Air

Not content with their first Ig Nobel prize, researchers at CSIRO have determined that adding air to your shower can cut water use by a third. Last time I checked, my shower is filled with air before I even turn the water on, so I add water to my air to take a shower.

The scientists have developed a simple ‘air shower’ device which, when fitted into existing showerheads, fills the water droplets with a tiny bubble of air. The result is the shower feels just as wet and just as strong as before, but now uses much less water. ... Small-scale experiments using the aeration device found that people detected no difference in water pressure, sensation, or overall perception of showering. ... He expects the nozzle would cost less than $20 and could be installed by householders.

All kidding aside, I hope this device works better than the "low flow" showerheads that have done so much to ruin on of the last enjoyments of life - a long hot shower. No word on whether or not they investigated the actually cleaning done by the shower.

Mad Dogs And Englishmen

Just to prove I don't have sex on the brain, here's another story about pointless science or technology and this time it has nothing to do with sex (unless you believe in the Watson Conjecture). It's all about the UV index, and how we so called Homo Sapiens Sapiens, which literally means 'man wise wise' are too stupid to figure out how bad we're going to get sunburned without some weather person telling us how bad the UV is. I mean, it's not like I can open my eyes, gaze into the heavens, and arrive at my own estimate as to how much UV is making it through the clouds or clear skies as the case may be.

But now the European Space Agency, ESA, has gone high tech with it. Yep, they have developed "safe sunning" technology using satellites to determine and inform you of the UV index:

Thanks to an innovative service called HappySun, the UV Index can be delivered directly to mobile phones via SMS or can be accessed on the Internet. HappySun calculates the UV Index throughout the day by using ESA satellite data on radiation, ozone and cloud coverage. The service has just completed its two-year-long test phase and has received positive feedback from users.
"HappySun is a tool for the primary prevention of skin cancer," Franco Marsili, Director of the Dermatology Clinic at the Versilia Hospital in Italy, said. "The aim is to educate people about the intelligent ‘use’ of the sun."

We really should change our offical name to Homo Stupidus Stupidus.

Hewlett Packard, We Hardly Know You Anymore

I have to admit I have a soft spot in my heart for Hewlett Packard. Perhaps it's because when I was a physics undergrad I used the original signal generators sold to Stanford University in my first lab (and yes, even then they belonged in a museum). When I was graduating, they were known as a quality employer with a special culture. So I have always associated the company with the best engineering values. It seems that all things change, and sadly H-P has changed too. The Carly Fiorina fiasco has now been followed by Patricia Dunn debacle. No, I don't think this has anything to do with the ability of a woman to run a great engineering company. I think it happens to do more with who runs large companies these days. Not just cream floats to the top.

The Driver Makes The Car

Have airbags and anti-lock brakes made us safer? The answer is no, according to a study by Dr. Mannering of Purdue University. And the reason is that people adjust their driving behavior to the safer cars:

The researchers used a series of mathematical equations in "probit models" to calculate accident probabilities based on the motor vehicle data and actual driving records. Using the data, the model enabled researchers to calculate the probabilities of whether drivers in different age and demographic categories would be involved in an accident. The models showed that the safety systems did not affect the probability of having an accident or injury.

The study represents the first attempt to test the offset hypothesis using "disaggregate data," or following the same households over time instead of using more general "aggregate" data from the population at large.

"By using disaggregate data, we have added to the credibility that our findings actually reflect offsetting behavior," Mannering said. "And the 2005 National Highway Traffic Safety Administration fatality data released last month indicate that fatalities per mile driven in the United States have actually increased, which adds some aggregate validation of our findings."

If we make such an adjustment without even thinking while driving a car, think of all the other stuff we simply adjust to so that we are keeping something like risk constant, or even increasing risk while thinking we are lowering it.

World's Smallest Gas Turbine Engine

MIT professors are trying to put a gas turbine engine on a chip. No, not because they are disciples of Schumacher, but because they are trying to build a better mousetrap, err, battery. The DOD is interested because they want to be able to provide soldiers plenty of power in the wilderness, or at least in difficult to supply situations.

Their microengine is made of six silicon wafers, piled up like pancakes and bonded together. Each wafer is a single crystal with its atoms perfectly aligned, so it is extremely strong. To achieve the necessary components, the wafers are individually prepared using an advanced etching process to eat away selected material. When the wafers are piled up, the surfaces and the spaces in between produce the needed features and functions.

...

The MIT team has now used this process to make all the components needed for their engine, and each part works. Inside a tiny combustion chamber, fuel and air quickly mix and burn at the melting point of steel. Turbine blades, made of low-defect, high-strength microfabricated materials, spin at 20,000 revolutions per second -- 100 times faster than those in jet engines. A mini-generator produces 10 watts of power. A little compressor raises the pressure of air in preparation for combustion. And cooling (always a challenge in hot microdevices) appears manageable by sending the compression air around the outside of the combustor.

This is one reason I like engineers - when they have fun, we all benefit.

Software That Can Sort Facts From Opinions

File this in the category of too good to be true: "A new research program by a Cornell computer scientist, in collaboration with colleagues at the University of Pittsburgh and University of Utah, aims to teach computers to scan through text and sort opinion from fact."

That will revolutionize the pundit business. I'm thinking lots of people will be surprised to discover just how much they read is opinion, not fact. And not just on op ed pages, either. But I'm not hopeful that the tack the researchers are taking will be able to measure anything beside how well a writer disguises his opinion as fact:

The new research will use machine-learning algorithms to give computers examples of text expressing both fact and opinion and teach them to tell the difference. A simplified example might be to look for phrases like "according to" or "it is believed." Ironically, Cardie said, one of the phrases most likely to indicate opinion is "It is a fact that ..."

The work also will seek to determine the sources of information cited by a writer. "We're making sure that any information is tagged with a confidence. If it's low confidence, it's not useful information," Cardie added.

So it's not like they are actually going to check the writing against facts; they are just going to look at how the information is presented, which means that ironically if you present opinion as fact the programs will take your word for it and flag it as fact. If you are careful and present your opinions as such, then the program will pick up on that and flag it as opinion.

In other words, the researchers are writing a program that uses the writer's opinion to sort opinion from fact in the writers work. Won't that be a great help. No word on a computerized sarcasm detector.

More, More, More

Here's a bit of good news: More than 565 people were arrested in Europe and the US in a sweep targeting marketing fraud using the internet. So far, 61 convictions. Keep it up, we need to cut down on all the fraud. I'm tired of my inbox bulging with criminal intent all the time.

What Does Information Taste Like?

The way to a man's heart is through his stomach, so it should come as no surprise that the way to anyone's brain is through the tongue. The military is interested in a device known as a Brain Port: a strip of 144 electrodes that can send information through nerves in the tongue to the brain. One user described the sensation to Pop Rocks.

But its not all about the military:

In testing, blind people found doorways, noticed people walking in front of them and caught balls. A version of the device, expected to be commercially marketed soon, has restored balance to those whose vestibular systems in the inner ear were destroyed by antibiotics.

I'm thinking its an even better man/machine interface than the desktop metaphor, keyboard and mouse.

Google Vs. DOJ

America has developed a bit of a privacy fetish. When we woke up one morning and realized that computers know everything about us, we got paranoid. I'm all for privacy, but when every company I do business with puts in inserts every month telling me about their "privacy policy" and people worry about anyone knowing where they live or that anyone can get pictures of their house, then things have gone a bit overboard.

And that brings us to Google vs. the DOJ. The DOJ is involved in case defending a web pornography law and they have asked leading search engines to provide a random sample of searches and indexed sites with no connection to who made the searches. The DOJ was conducting a science experiment about how well filters worked vs. how well a law would work at keeping p0rnography from minors. The other search engines have complied, but Google got up on it's hind legs and claimed that they were worried about their users privacy and their own trade secrets. The mere mention of users privacy was enough to set off the baying of the hounds about how the DOJ wanted to violate web users secrecy and made Google out to be the good guys.

It strikes me that what Google is really and only concerned about is their trade secrets here (or perhaps their image if it became known just how much of their business is p0rn related). I say this for two reasons - one is that Google has already violated their users privacy by keeping track of what everybody searches; and the other is that they've already sold out their Chinese users. The only person interested in keeping your privacy is you. Don't ever forget that.

Up Up and Away

Move over Virgin Galactic, here comes Space Adventures. OK, there are more than two firms trying to be the first commercial space tourism firms to actually put tourists into space on their own equipment (a few people have flown on Russian government flights). Good luck gentlemen. The question is if you can get enough people to pay a million dollars to have a suborbital fight that it will fund the development and develop the confidence so that you can offer orbital flight for $100,000.

The Zombies Are Coming!

I couldn't resist the headline: FBI arrest Zombie pusher. 3 quick guesses as to what they mean - by zombie pusher - if the first two have to do with people turned into "zombies" like in The Serpent and the Rainbow or drug dealers, you still have one left. Actually it's a good news/bad news kind of thing. The FBI arrested and charged one Jeanson James Ancheta for taking over computers and forming a "zombie network" that he used to install adware and send spam. He may have made roughly $60,000 but made the mistake of taking over Defense Department computers. So now he faces up to 50 years in jail (hanging's too good). That's the good news. The bad news is that "'Zombie botnets are a growing security problem". That sure doesn't sound good. So can we go to Internet 2.0 with security designed in from the start? Please?

Apple = Headlines

Apple is making their own waves again, this time with a filing with the SEC detailing a deal with Freescale (which used to be a part of Motorola) to continue to supply PowerPC processors until 2008. This comes after Steve Jobs shocking announcement in June that Apple was switching to Intel chips and the move would be complete by the end of 2007. Analysts were unsure of the meaning of the announcement; here at funmurphys our crack team of Apple watchers concludes that the announcement means Mr. Jobs wanted publicity and nothing else, as the news about a revolutionary (for Apple) new mouse didn't garner enough buzz.

Branding Done Wrong

Eight months of searching for a product name for the latest incarnation of Windows, and Microsoft comes up with Vista. How I would love to be a consultant. How MS could take eight months and not come up with an improvement on Longhorn (who really wants their computer OS named after a large, stupid ruminant) is beyond me. Accurate maybe, but we're talking marketing here. Heck, I could have made random picks out of the dictionary until I got a better name much quicker and cheaper.

I guess MS is hoping that Windows Vista turns out better than AltaVista, which was once a cutting edge search engine, dethroned by Google (for those of you too young to remember.

I suppose that the boring, focus group driven name fits the boring, focus group driven product. And hopefully diverts attention for just how late the product is. I have to wonder what the effect of all the top management of a company being rich beyond the dreams of avarice have on a company; in the case of Microsoft, it would appear that the combination of money and a lack of competition have caused it to become downright lazy.

Fast Is Good

Apparently "Broadband" doesn't convey the speed of what a Finnish company will be able to bring to cable networks next year, so now we have "Super Fast Broadband". Will DSL come back with "Faster than Fast DSL" I wonder? As a cable internet subscriber, I'm happy at the announcement of 100 megabits a second for cable, although I'll still probably be just a bronze subscriber which puts me at about 25 megabits a second. And while the Finns are at it, can they bring down the price on the really big plasma and LCD screens ("Big Honking Screen TV"). Thanks.

Nitro Stat

I'm still reeling from the Apple's announcment that they were switching to Intel processors. Whatever Apple may say, I think the only reason is that the AIM alliance (Apple, IBM, Motorola) didn't work out the way Apple had hoped when they started it to make PowerPC chips (which are popular not just in gaming consoles, but lots of military applications as well). The two companies that actually manufacture the darn things have pretty much lost interest in making PowerPCs for personal computers and have often left Apple with egg on its face.

Apple faces a significant short term hurdle - will people buy PowerPC computers now knowing that software support for them may be problematic in a few years? The only bright spot is that Apple has tackled this problem before, when they switched from 6800 chips to PowerPC, and even when they switched from the old System 9 to the new System X.

And finally, the most important question: How will this affect Mac gaming?

How Very Yeah

It's all about hitting what you want, and only what you want.

Faded Glory

Why doesn't the space program get much coverage these days? I know I'm a tech head and all, but our endevours in space get much less coverage than it deserves. How many people even know we have a crewed international space station, let alone we just had a change in crew up there?

What Are They Thinking?

I'm filing this under solution in search of a problem -- Google will keep track of all your search requests for you. Thanks Google, but that helps me how? If I want to keep track of something I've found, I use a bookmark. Very handy, those. Perhaps Google hasn't heard of them.

It's not a savvy public relations move - Americans are down right privacy paranoid these days, and few of us are comfortable with the thought of anybody keeping track of every search we ever make. Now I understand that you have to register and then log in to have your searches remembered, but the perception is going to be that Google is keeping track. And if people get to thinking and consider that their ISPs can keep track of that plus all the web sites they've ever visited, the country is going to get one great big queesy feeling -- I could even see a bout of legislation coming on. Nope, somethings are best left unremarked and hopefully unthought of.

Apple Report

While Andrew Sullivan worries about alienation via iPod, Robert Cringely and an unnamed correspondent look at convergence (without using the word, which is so last century) and the Mac Mini.

But in the case of Apple, is the iPod a razor or a blade? In other words, is Apple a hardware company or a media company? ... To me, it seems that Apple has reversed the relationship of razors and blades, and eliminated the loss leader role entirely. Apple makes very little money from selling songs, but it does make some profit. Apple makes a LOT of profit from selling iPods. So the song is the razor, not the iPod, and that's because the price sensitivity is currently about the content, not the player. ... So Apple isn't in the content business, they are in the hardware business, and will be for sometime to come. But my friendly reader sees it differently.

And to top it off, the leaders of the future are trending Macintosh -- at least those at Harvard (the Stanford of the East Coast) according to the Harvard Crimson (what a blatant rip off of Cardinal) which reports increases in use and sales of Macs on campus.

No wonder my Apple stock is up. Yes, I'm a Mac person. Pity or applaud as you will.

(If I really wanted traffic, I would of course start the food fight with a line like PC sucks, Macs rule! I do, but I won't.)

Honesty. How Refreshing

Apple continues to create buzz, and their latest product and earning announcements sure helped. I happened to read an outstanding column in Motley Fool (link may require free registration) from a link at McSurfer's Daily News. What's outstanding in my opinion isn't so much the analysis, although I have to applaud a financial writer that doesn't take his eye off the bottom line when looking at a company that knows how to create hype like Apple, but his honesty in admitting past error. Would that we all could be so forthright. It's even more amazing when it comes from an industry not known for admitting error or honesty.

As an Apple stock owner (yes, this also constitutes full disclosure), I applaud the outstanding earnings. As an Apple enthusiast, I applaud the technical and marketing know how put on display with the latest product announcements. I can't remember anymore where I read it, but I was clued into one of the thoughts behind the box only mini-Mac: in addition to reducing the quoted price, it's aimed at switchers from PCs. The thinking goes that if you switch, you already have a keyboard, monitor, and mouse, so why buy a new set? I thought that was pretty clever, especially since I know people who are fed up with the internet experience (i.e. malware) of PCs. I might just mention the mini-Mac to them - for a minimal investment, they can put a Mac between them and the internet, and could continue to use their PC by changing a few cables (they could even network the Mac and PC with a cable to move files). I'll just stick to my iMacs.

One More Flavor of Cool

Now that I'm burning my own music CD's -- a combination of what I already own and songs downloaded from iTunes -- I'm also labeling my own CDs. The Fruit of the Murphy Loins were more than happy to take a marker to the bare plastic, but aesthtete that I am, I wanted more, and so I use the Neato labeling system. It works fine, although I'm limited by my artistic ability, and I can't leave the CDs in the car when it gets real cold because the CD shrinks more than the label which causes puckering which causes problems playing the CD. But HP has solved that problem for me with their new LightScribe technology which burns the flip side of the CD. I want one.

A Funmurphys: the Blog First!

OK, my first two parter! Sadly, this was not a case of following a plan, but having to leave the computer before finished with the last post. And then I couldn't get back until just now (the six hours I spent playing MOO3 over the weekend were absolutely vital to my mental well being and doesn't count). Now I'm going to talk about the objections to the Bush Space Initiative (hey, the other night the guys on the local TV news were calling the storm that went through here on Sunday "The Ice Storm Of 2004" complete with graphics and theme music) that I discussed below.

First there are the philosophical objections. One objection is that since Bush proposed it, it must be bad. This is idea is either irrefutable or self refuting, depending on your view of President Bush.

Another objection is that the money should be spent here on Earth. Well, it will be spent here on Earth. Seriously, the amount of money is trivial compared to all that is spent on the social programs wanted by the people who feel this way. The choice between space exploration and curing every want here on Earth is a false one. We can try to do both, although I will note that the Government spending money has been tried as a cure-all and while it can be pretty effective, has been shown to not be 100% effective.

Then there is the objection that people get in the way of good science. To which I say, so what. I don't recall a vote to give everything above the earth's atmosphere to the exclusive purview of science and scientists. I've said it before, and I'll say it again - only this time with the words of President Bush, the goal of the space program is the "establishment of a human presence throughout the solar system."

Then there are the technical objections. Cost is a big one. No, not what the President is projecting, but what the critics are. Rand Simberg, where you should always head first for your space needs, has a crack at the cost. I have to agree - we went to the moon over thirty years ago, we've continued to work on rocket engines etc. since then, so it should less expensive now. But I think you have to consider further - if you go to a car dealer and tell him you're willing to spend $40,000 for a car, you'll walk out with a car that costs at least that much. If you want something that costs only $10,000 you have to ask for a car that costs no more than that. I know some of you are thinking, yeah, but this is the Government we're talking about here, but the principle is the same. And I know it can be done since I've lived through the revolution in munition costs - where once a single Tomahawk cost more than a million dollars, now you have JDAMs costing around 20 grand each. How did that happen? The government demanded it.

Then there are the technical hurdles - a heavy lift vehicle, why are we going to the moon to get to Mars (i.e. why leave one gravity well just to climb down another). The non-space enthusiast, and even the casual enthusiast, would be surprised at the full range of study and work that has been done in this area for decades, from space cottage industry of space enthusiasts, grad students, and professors all the way up to the big boys like Boeing and Lockheed Martin. It's all engineering people, and we've done it before. Well, a lot of it, anyway. You'd be amazed at the amount of thought, study, and sheer ingenuity that has gone into how to get to Mars by a huge network of people over the years.

And finally, there is the objection that it was all government (and NASA hasn't done a good job the last 20 years or so). Yes, President Bush gave NASA marching orders. I'm not sure what more people want him to do, since he cannot command private companies to do anything. Yes, NASA will most likely turn to the usual contractors for the official program. But there is nothing stopping the little guys from continuing their programs, and I think the renewed interest in space exploration can only help them -- especially financially, which is where they need it the most in the short term.

There is a type of engineer who every engineer has encountered - the guy for whom nothing will ever work. When asked for thoughts, he spews forth problems. When presented with a task, he immediately begins looking for reasons it won't work, not how to make it work. I had an older engineer explain to me that you need somebody like that around, because they made you solve all the problems and look for ways to make it work.

Space Bush

OK, I'm late to commenting on President Bush's space initiative. You should have read lots of good commentary already; if you haven't, then head on over to Mr. Simberg's blog, Transterrestial Musings, for enlightening space commentary. I think the primary goal of our national space program should be the permanent presence of mankind in space. Science in space is fun, interesting, nice, doable, worthwhile, etc. but should not be the primary goal of a national space progam (at least until we do have a permanent presence). So I have to like Mr. Bush's call for a manned Moon base followed by a manned trip to Mars because that really advances what I think should be the primary goal. And putting in terms of going somewhere, rather than just being somewhere, makes it sound so much better.

The Absent Minded Professor

Cronaca tells us that New Zealander Bruce Simpson has had his garage based cruise missile project shut down by the New Zealand government. Well, if you read the BBC article Mr. Simpson says they chose to bankrupt him over a tax debt. Does this mean the IRS just didn't like the way Leona Helmsley ran her hotels? Or the music Willie Nelson played?

Sometimes A Great Notion

Virginia Tech owns the third fastest supercomputer in the world. An assistant professor of computer science slapped 1,100 dual processor Mac G5's together for a mere 5.2 million dollars (including the cost of pizza and soda for the student volunteers) and voila, near instant supercomputer. The cost of supercomputing just came down by an order of magnitude. Maybe now weather forcasts and CFD will be accurate.

Has The Professor Seen The Light?

Glenn Reynolds has firmly come down on the dark side in the OS wars, and he's even tweaked James Lileks about it in the past ('when elephants mate, it's the grass that suffers' - African Proverb). But is the ice thawing? First up, he linked to an article in Slate about his new car, the RX-8, that ends with: "Cute, peppy, compact, different: Call it the Mac OS X of engines." Is he signalling a desire to switch?

He follows that up with a Tech Central Station column about the importance of looks in design entitled "Look and Feel." Get it? That was the crux of the lawsuit between Apple and Microsoft and is a phrase in constant use amongst the mac faithful. And who pushes the importance of aesthetics in design more than Apple? Nobody, that's who.

But he doesn't stop there. He ends the piece with: "And I think that Virginia Postrel is right to say that we'll see a greater emphasis on design -- and, in particular, design that appeals to people, not just designers -- over the next few decades than we've seen over the last few. That won't change the world, exactly, but it'll remove a lot of petty frustrations from our lives, and make many of the things we use more enjoyable." Gee, sounds like an Apple ad - a computer for the rest of us. And remember Steve Job's famous appeal to John Sculley: "Do you want to spend the rest of your life selling sugared water, or do you want a chance to change the world?"

Coincidence? I don't think so.

I'm, I'm, I'm So Confused

Al Gore has joined the Apple Board of Directors. I'm a fan of Apple (although I try to be an unobnoxious one). I am not a fan of Al Gore. I guess Steve Jobs gave him a pity seat; Al, you're never going to Disneyland, you loser, but you can be on the Apple board.

SDB success

Boeing's entry in the Small Diameter Bomb competition had a successful first flight the other day. And there was much rejoicing.

National Engineers Week

Not that most of you are aware of it, if only because there are no Hallmark Card for the occasion, but this is National Engineers Week, colloquially known as a celebration of all things geek. As I am an engineer, you can send me a homemade card (enclosing a check is optional) anytime this week. If that doesn't grab you, tomorrow is Introduce a Girl to Engineering Day, so named because, completely in keeping with stereotypes, there aren't enough women in engineering. I understand marketing (as per usual) overruled the engineers who wanted it to be called Engineering Needs Women! Day.

Actually, I've found engineering (turning ideas into reality) to be a rewarding career. Going into college, I was going to be a scientist, but you can't do much real science without a PhD, and I quickly discovered I didn't have what it took to stay in an academic setting for more than four years. So I went into aerospace engineering and have had a ball making things happen ever since.

Shuttle Aerodynamics

NASA now says that the drag on the left wing of Columbia is consistant with assymetrical boundary layer transition, which it has seen on about a dozen prior occasions. The boundary layer is the part of the airflow where it changes from the freestream velocity somewhere abouve the surface to zero at the surface of vehicle. Boundary layers are either laminar or turbulent. In laminar boundary layers, the flow moves smoothly along lines which are essentially parallel with no mixing as you move away from the surface; in turbulent boundary layers, which are thicker and have more drag, there are eddy currents within the flow, so there is mixing and therefore increased heat transfer.

The P-51 Mustang famously had a laminar flow airfoil. For airplanes, the flow over the wing and body is typically laminar initially and then transitions to turbulent - and one of the factors that determines where that transition occurs is surface roughness. One part of wind tunnel testing is to make sure that the boundary layer transitions on the subscale model in the same location as it would on the full scale, full Reynolds number vehicle. Transition strip, which is a strip of high surface roughness, is placed in the location where this occurs so that aerodynamics measured will correspond to the flight vehicle. Apparently the flow over the space shuttle wing starts outs totally laminar, and then later transitions to mostly turbulent. What happened with Columbia (and other flights) was that one wing was rougher than the other, and thus that wing transitioned from laminar to turbulent much sooner, leading to higher temperatures and higher drag on that wing. The drag meant that the control rockets had to be used more to correct for the induced yaw, and in the past NASA's worry was that the control rockets would run out of fuel before the shuttle landed. So could the assymetric transition itself have led to to the loss of Columbia? NASA doesn't think so, and I have to believe the engineers who designed it wouldn't have let a predictable occurance like that have caused a vehicle failure. Of course, combined with another failure, it could have been a contributing factor.

Whither NASA?

The demise of the Space Shuttle Columbia with seven astronauts onboard has raised important issues about NASA and space exploration. I once worked designing launch trajectories for Delta - I worked on the launches for IRAS, EXOSAT, and LANDSAT-D' before moving on to smaller, more deadly aeronautical programs. I almost went to work at Rockwell in their Shuttle Ascent group.

Rand Simberg (among others) at Transterrestial Musings has made many important points about space exploration. The space shuttle has been an engineering failure - it hasn't achieved, and will never achieve, it's cost, turnaround, and safety goals. The problem is, the replacement programs, such as X-33 (VentureStar) have been even worse failures. The problems with the shuttle date back to decisions made from the dawn of the program, both in terms of engineering and cost. Columbia wasn't destroyed by lack of near-term safety funding, of failure to pay heed to safety guru's demanding more money, but by the inherently risky nature of space travel and design decisions made thirty years ago.

And he's right to say we need to go back to first principles when it comes to space exploration. The problem has been we've never really had any, and so as time has gone on, we've tended to let the programs drive the goals, rather than goals drive programs. So the proper response should be to figure out what we want to do, assign priorities, realistically figure up the cost, and go to it. Will that happen? I doubt it. But here are a few of my ideas anyway.

The space program should do the following:

(1) Provide a permanent human presence in space,

(2) Explore the cosmos, and

(3) Exploit the unique environments beyond earth.

We need humans in space. But that doesn't mean we need to put humans in space when we don't need them. Before Challanger blew up, NASA made Space Shuttle it's only launch vehicle, eliminating expendable rockets, in an attempt to reach cost goals for the shuttle. So we were risking people to put up satellites, which we don't need to do. And we were also putting all our launch eggs in one basket, which blew up in our face. I think there will always be a place for unmanned launch vehicles -- they'll be cheaper because the safety requirements will not have to be as stringent.

Which brings us to safety and risk. One of the safety problems with the shuttle is that it represented a bunch of new technology. We now risk humans on the beta version of technology (sadly 30 years out of date now). Frankly, that's not acceptable from a safety standpoint. People shouldn't be risking their lives until we've tried out the technology on an unmanned vehicle, learned from the inevitable mistakes, and made improvements. While 100% safety is impossible, certainly we can use some common sense.

NASA has done a pretty good job when it comes to exploring the cosmos, but a lousy job when it comes to providing a permanent human presence and exploiting the unique environments beyond earth. There are many who seem to feel that NASA is standing in the way of these goals, and if they would just somehow get out of the way, private initiative would take care of them. I'm not so sure. The example of civil aviation is often cited, but while I think it provides a great notional roadmap, too many of the details don't match. NASA should develop the technology that can be transitioned to private industry, just as it did for civil aviation, but is the technology mature? A lot of aviation pioneers died from accidents; society has become much more intolerant of fatal accidents. Capital costs are orders of magnitude greater as well, with uncertain payoffs. There is no denying that aviation technology received huge boosts from military investments in the world wars, but there hasn't been any military interest in humans in space since MOL (Manned Orbiting Laboratory)was canceled in 1969. A couple modestly successful businessmen (AKA the Wright Brothers) could fund the development, design, construction, and test flights of the first aircraft. Can the same be said of launch vehicles, let alone space stations? That leaves tourism, so far the only money maker in manned space efforts. Is Disney ready to spend the billions required when the risks are large and the return uncertain? Is any company with the pockets deep enough ready to roll the dice on space? In short no. NASA needs to make the eventual privatization of space a goal (OK, make it number 4 up above) so that it's programs support that goal, but I don't think we're there yet.

The Best Defense Is An Offense

No, this isn't about what the Rams need to do in the off season. Tim Mullen, computer security expert, has proposed that if a malicious process on another computer is attacking your computer, you should be able to go and kill it on the other computer -- what Mullen calls "strikeback". It sounds like a good idea to me - and oddly enough, Mullen has found that most of us outside the security business think so too. It's the security experts who are having a hard time with it. The trouble with common sense is that it isn't common.

Steve Case Leaves AOL

Steve Case has apparently left AOL Time Warner of his own free will. There are a lot of people who dislike Case and AOL, but I'm not one of them. I joined in 1991 (give or take, the memory grows hazy with time) and left only recently to go to broadband when Charter made me a deal I couldn't refuse. I was dissatisfied with AOL when I left, but after our long association, I was more sad than upset. And I think the AOL Time Warner merger was ego in search of justification, and Case got in over his head. Kind of like HP merging with Compaq, but that's another story. Also like a lot of us who thought we were pretty savvy investors, but discovered a rising tide lifts all boats. I have a similar discussion with my brother (who works for Cisco) about the evaluation of management when a market is growing at 30% or more a year -- how do you tell the great from the ordinary? You can't, everybody looks great. I think a lot of the internet hype will eventually come true, just not as soon or by the then players.

When I first signed up, few people would have thought AOL would turn out to be the largest ISP -- heck, it was a dial up service and there weren't any ISPs then. I think the interesting thing is that in those days, AOL was quite Mac like. Not only the interface, but the focus on the customer experience. I considered CompuServe, which was the leader, but between a notoriously awful interface and high prices I went with GEnie instead. But GEnie was cheap for a reason. So then I saw an ad for AOL, and I decided to give it a try. The user experience did deteriorate with time, and the porn spam got to be downright scary in quantity (It was amazing how many mega babes I was getting all hot and bothered). But in the early days, it offered plenty of product, a simple and usable interface at a reasonable cost.

In my opinion, when PCs got big, Microsoft wound up grabbing IBM's monopoly via the IBM compatable route (Yes Virginia, IBM was a monopoly, and Microsoft is a monopoly). Apple lost out in the enterprise market because IBM was nowhere associated with it. For the BBS's, dialups and then ISPs, there was no prior monopoly leader, and AOL won based on user experience, which the home market was sensitive to. Same strategy, different results.

Steve Case did an admirable job at growing a dial up service, at transitioning to an ISP, and in getting ISP customers. But when it came to running a giant ISP, he wasn't as good. And it turns out he wasn't any good at all at running a media giant, but I'm not sure Time Warner has had good management for some time. Somehow I can't find it in my heart to hate or consider evil businessmen who's sin is not doing a good job, or losing sight of the customer. That makes them a lousy businessman, not a lousy person.

The Demise of the Sonic Cruiser

The Seattle Times is reporting that Boeing is planning on stopping work on the Sonic Cruiser and instead focus on a plane that is cheaper to operate. The selling point of the Sonic Cruiser was to be its speed - a cruise speed of Mach 0.95. With the airline business in the tank, Boeing will instead work towards a plane that is 15-20% cheaper to build and operate. Cheaper operation will come primarily improved peformance from weight reductions; lower drag and better engine performance will no doubt be part of the equation, but there isn't a lot of improvement to be made there.

Fastest Supercomputer

Japan now has the fastest supercomputer in the world now. It's five times faster than next fastest supercomputer, so now we're behind in a supercomputer race with Japan. It's used to perform weather modeling. I'm not expecting local weather forecasts to get any better (for instance, the rain that yesterday was supposed to arrive late tonight was here when I woke up); the computational results are still only as good as our understanding. All computers are the same - they do exactly what you tell them to do, not what you want them to do.

Google

We all know and love Google. Wired has an interesting article about the king of internet searches. It nicely covers some of the issues that Google has had to confront - lawsuits by the Church of Scientology, a ban in China, site blocking in Europe. Google hasn't stood on principle, but conformed to what many in the tech community considers bad law, or worked with China. And I think rightly so -- they have to work inside the law, and freedom in China is probably better served through a politically limited internet than no internet at all. But interestingly enough, Google will accept ads from porno sites, but not from liquor or tobacco sites. Some businesses are more equal than others.

Internet Bloodied But Unbowed

Monday afternoon, the internet came under attack according to this AP story. A person or persons unknown launched a coordinated denial of service attack against the 13 root DNS servers worldwide. When "defensive measures" were taken, the attack stopped. Fortunately, no one but the root server administrators noticed. The FBI is investigating. Is it Al-Qaida, a German hacking club, or a couple of bored teenagers in Encino? Who knows.

The problem is that the internet was designed to be a network between DOD computers that could survive nuclear attack, and security is consequently an afterthought because it was assumed based on the DOD having possession of the networked computers. This same assumption stayed with us when the internet was set up as a network between university computers. Now that any bozo can run an internet server from anywhere, we need a less trusting system.

The Space Station, Globalization, and Baptist Ministers

It's sad, but the thrill of space exploration seems to have departed from the world. We're building a space station in cooperation with the Russians, astronauts are living there now, and, well, the response is ho hum. I hate to admit it, but when I read this article, I was surprised that the space station was crewed (OK, PC of me, but there it is). And the explosion of a Soyuz once would have been a big deal. When I was a kid, I remember watching the Apollo launches on TV in my elementary school gym. Now, I doubt my kids even know we have a space program. The crowd that once would have been happy that we're cooperating with the Russians on endeavors designed to help all humanity have moved on to protesting "globalization", whatever that is, or warning against the horrors of a new Vietnam with more fervor than a Baptist minister warning against the horrors of fire and brimstone, although in similar terms.

Microsoft Pulls Switch Ad

The internet supposedly has this libertarian live-and-let-live sensibility to it. This is quite often true, but when it comes to what computer you use, that sensibility goes right out the window for a lot of people. Instead, use my choice or you’re an ignorant goober seems to be the sensibility. I happen to love Macintosh -- it has its weaknesses, and Windows and Linux have their strengths. If you make a different choice, I figure its right for you. Still, I do get a chuckle out of Microsoft, when I'm not getting steamed that is. Luckily, this time it's a chuckle. In keeping with Microsoft's long history of Apple flattery, they decided to imitate Apple's new Switch ads which feature real people who've switched from Windows to Macintosh. But they did it in Microsoft's typical ham-handed fashion. Eagle eyed members of the Slashdot community noticed that the picture of the woman in the ad was actually a stock photograph. AP then went further and tracked the woman down based upon information imbedded within the files that accompanied the ads, and discovered that's she's an employee of the PR firm that originated the ad. She insists she really did switch, but Microsoft pulled the ad. You might say that's the difference between Apple and Microsoft in a nutshell - Apple worries about the substance, Microsoft only the form. Sure, they could have found someone independent who switched and identified them, but all you really need is to claim someone did -- that's good enough.

France's Latest Contribution to Civilization

The Singapore Straits Times reports that France is going to test new technology that will control speeding by motorists. Onboard computers will use GPS to determine the proper speed limit, and if exceeded, will flash up a warning message, and then disable the fuel injectors until the car's speed falls below the limit.

Somehow I don't think this will catch on among us cowboy Americans. And it doesn't cover what I think are more important driving problems - lane weaving; tailgaiting; drinking and driving; falling asleep at the wheel; talking on the cell phone, engaging in personal grooming such as putting on makeup or shaving, or reading the paper while driving; or teaching other drivers a lesson by being a jerk back instead of providing a positive roll model.

Can you say Nanny State? I thought you could.